Verifact Markets Launches Platform Letting Users Bet on Disputed Historical Facts

A new startup called Verifact Markets launched in October 2026 with an unusual twist on prediction markets: instead of wagering on future events, users can trade on whether past events actually happened.

The platform lets users take “true” or “false” positions on contested historical claims. At launch, available markets included whether Jeffrey Epstein died by suicide, whether Covid-19 originated from a lab, whether footage from the Apollo 11 moon landing was filmed on Earth, and whether insurer State Farm intentionally delayed claims related to the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires. During beta testing, the featured market centered on Covid-19 origins, with “true” priced at 76 cents and “false” at 32 cents, with the majority of participants betting the pandemic began at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Verifact Markets is funded and incubated by Positron Capital Management, the family office of tech investor Peter Wokwicz. “I’m excited, because nobody’s done this before,” Wokwicz said. “We’re not going to shy away from controversial markets.” He has cited debates over AI data center energy consumption as an example of the kind of dispute the platform could help resolve.

The platform allows users to submit evidence supporting or opposing their position, and the company plans to offer rewards for credible documentation that helps resolve a market. If Verifact Markets determines sufficient evidence exists to make a call, it will settle the market. If not, it will “expire” the market and pay out users based on calculated odds at the time of expiration.

The concept builds on the mechanics of established prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, which have faced their own disputes over how events are resolved. Verifact Markets’ focus on already-contested facts could make resolution even more complex, since the platform is designed specifically for scenarios where the underlying truth remains in dispute.